A dynamic overview of six core approaches to conflict and atrocity prevention—mapped by effect, backed by evidence.
Key impact: Justice (+0.351), Transitions (+0.138)
Peacekeeping builds institutional trust. Strong gains in justice and political transitions, but SGBV increases—a warning to mission design.
Key impact: Diplomacy (+0.347), Conflict risk (-0.018)
Aid improves compliance under pressure but can worsen conflict when misused. Conditionality matters. Context is everything.
Key impact: Justice Access (+0.148), Trust (+0.108)
Radio dramas and info campaigns spark civic help, foster trust, and shift norms—if messages are sustained and localized.
Key impact: Services (+0.280), Civic Engagement (+0.171)
Community-led development works: real effects on access, inclusion, and local governance. But gains on violence are negligible.
Key impact: Security (+0.137), Governance (+0.121)
Elections create opportunity—but also risk. Moderate gains in order and trust, slight declines in civic enthusiasm.
Key impact: Cohesion (+0.260), Economic Security (+0.188)
High-impact programs boost employment, trust, and social links. But some trade-offs: less schooling, lower political interest.
Key impact: Diplomatic Relations (+0.347), Economic Security (+0.052)
Aid can build legitimacy and improve governance, but rarely where violence happens. Aid tends to worsen conflict in unstable zones, especially when it’s lootable. Military aid is the most destabilizing. However, aid conditionality (withholding aid) can push governments toward reforms, though the effect fades over time.
Key impact: Physical Security (+0.139), Health (+0.186)
Diplomatic efforts show promise in human rights campaigns and public opinion shifts, but little effect on violence overall. In-group endorsements build social support for peace, while out-group endorsements backfire. Name-and-shame tactics can work, but not always. Diplomatic pressure rarely shifts entrenched state behaviors.
Key impact: Violence Reduction (+0.78)
Political training of armed actors can reduce civilian harm. Evidence is limited but striking trained fighters kill fewer civilians than those with military-only or no training. A strong case for investing in political education within armed groups.
Key impact: Physical Security (+0.453), Government Performance (+0.138)
Military force sometimes reduces violence, but not reliably. It improves public confidence in limited cases, like Kenya’s anti-terrorism campaign. Drone strikes in Pakistan showed effectiveness, but overall, operations fall short of expected peacebuilding. Biased interventions may reduce chances of negotiated peace.
Key impact: Physical Security (+0.453), Access to Justice (+0.045)
Community and problem-oriented policing can improve safety, but not everywhere. Where trust in police is low, heavy presence may backfire. Effects on broader justice or governance are minimal. Traditional authorities remain crucial for dispute resolution in many settings.
